May 30 2024

Pending home sales fell another 7.7 percent in April according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for the month was 72.3 compared to 78.3 in March. Based on purchase contracts for previously owned single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments, the Index was also down 7.4 percent from its level in April 2023. [pendinghomesdata] “The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “But the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut later this year should lead to better conditions, with improved affordability and more supply.” The slowdown in the home sale market is clear when looking at the national PHSI since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. The index averaged 115.2 in 2022 and 91.9 in 2023. It has not exceeded 78.5 at any point in 2024. All four major regions lost ground for the month and year-over-year. In the Northeast , the PHSI level of 62.9 was down 3.5 percent from March and 3.1 percent on an annual basis. The Midwest index dropped 9.5 percent to 70.7 percent, a decline of 8.7 percent from one year ago. The South lost 7.6 percent and 8.2 percent compared to the two earlier periods to a reading of 88.6. The West’s Index was at 55.9, a decline of 8.5 percent from March and 7.3 percent from the previous April.

May 29 2024

Higher interest rates helped to wipe out three weeks of gains in mortgage application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that activity, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 6.3 percent before adjustment during the week ended May 24. The Refinance Index plummeted by 14.0 percent from the previous week’s level but stayed 12.0 percent higher than during the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 31.3 percent from 34.0 percent. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index declined for the third straight week, slipping 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.0 percent on an unadjusted basis. Purchase loan applications were down 10.0 percent compared to the same period in 2023.   [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates increased for the first time in four weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate up to 7.05 percent and all other loan types also seeing increases. The uptick in rates led to a decline in mortgage applications heading into Memorial Day weekend,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.  “Both purchase and refinance applications fell, pushing overall activity to the lowest level since early March. Borrowers remain sensitive to small increases in rates, impacting the refinance market and keeping purchase applications below last year’s levels. There continues to be limited levels of existing homes for sale and many buyers are struggling to find listings in their price range that meet their needs.”

May 22 2024

The inventory of existing homes for sale increased from March to April, but the increased availability didn’t bolster sales. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million. This was a decline of 1.9 percent from sales in both March of this year and April 2024. At the end of April, there were 121 million units of housing available for sale, an increase of 9 percent from March and 16.3 percent year-over-year. This equates to a 3.5-month supply at the current rate of sales compared to 3.2 percent and 3.0 percent at the two earlier points in time. NAR says a six-month supply is typically necessary for a balanced real estate market. There was a big increase in higher-priced homes. The inventory of available homes listed at $1 million or more was 34 percent larger than a year earlier and sales in that tier increased 40 percent. Properties typically remained on the market for 26 days in April, down from 33 days in March but up from 22 days in April 2023. NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yan said overall home sales changed little, but the upper end of the market is benefiting from the increase supply of homes. Single-family home sales fell 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.74 million, down from 3.82 million in March. Sales were 1.3 percent lower year-over-year.  Condo and co-op sales remained at their March level of 400,000 units, 30,000 fewer than the previous April.